888 BOT #alerts█ 888 BOT #alerts (open source)
This is an Expert Advisor 'EA' or Automated trading script for ‘longs’ and ‘shorts’, which uses only a Take Profit or, in the worst case, a Stop Loss to close the trade.
It's a much improved version of the previous ‘Repanocha’. It doesn`t use 'Trailing Stop' or 'security ()' functions (although using a security function doesn`t mean that the script repaints) and all signals are confirmed, therefore the script doesn`t repaint in alert mode and is accurate in backtest mode.
Apart from the previous indicators, some more and other functions have been added for Stop-Loss, re-entry and leverage.
It uses 8 indicators, (many of you already know what they are, but in case there is someone new), these are the following:
1. Jurik Moving Average
It's a moving average created by Mark Jurik for professionals which eliminates the 'lag' or delay of the signal. It's better than other moving averages like EMA , DEMA , AMA or T3.
There are two ways to decrease noise using JMA . Increasing the 'LENGTH' parameter will cause JMA to move more slowly and therefore reduce noise at the expense of adding 'lag'
The 'JMA LENGTH', 'PHASE' and 'POWER' parameters offer a way to select the optimal balance between 'lag' and over boost.
Green: Bullish , Red: Bearish .
2. Range filter
Created by Donovan Wall, its function is to filter or eliminate noise and to better determine the price trend in the short term.
First, a uniform average price range 'SAMPLING PERIOD' is calculated for the filter base and multiplied by a specific quantity 'RANGE MULTIPLIER'.
The filter is then calculated by adjusting price movements that do not exceed the specified range.
Finally, the target ranges are plotted to show the prices that will trigger the filter movement.
Green: Bullish , Red: Bearish .
3. Average Directional Index ( ADX Classic) and ( ADX Masanakamura)
It's an indicator designed by Welles Wilder to measure the strength and direction of the market trend. The price movement is strong when the ADX has a positive slope and is above a certain minimum level 'ADX THRESHOLD' and for a given period 'ADX LENGTH'.
The green color of the bars indicates that the trend is bullish and that the ADX is above the level established by the threshold.
The red color of the bars indicates that the trend is down and that the ADX is above the threshold level.
The orange color of the bars indicates that the price is not strong and will surely lateralize.
You can choose between the classic option and the one created by a certain 'Masanakamura'. The main difference between the two is that in the first it uses RMA () and in the second SMA () in its calculation.
4. Parabolic SAR
This indicator, also created by Welles Wilder, places points that help define a trend. The Parabolic SAR can follow the price above or below, the peculiarity that it offers is that when the price touches the indicator, it jumps to the other side of the price (if the Parabolic SAR was below the price it jumps up and vice versa) to a distance predetermined by the indicator. At this time the indicator continues to follow the price, reducing the distance with each candle until it is finally touched again by the price and the process starts again. This procedure explains the name of the indicator: the Parabolic SAR follows the price generating a characteristic parabolic shape, when the price touches it, stops and turns ( SAR is the acronym for 'stop and reverse'), giving rise to a new cycle. When the points are below the price, the trend is up, while the points above the price indicate a downward trend.
5. RSI with Volume
This indicator was created by LazyBear from the popular RSI .
The RSI is an oscillator-type indicator used in technical analysis and also created by Welles Wilder that shows the strength of the price by comparing individual movements up or down in successive closing prices.
LazyBear added a volume parameter that makes it more accurate to the market movement.
A good way to use RSI is by considering the 50 'RSI CENTER LINE' centerline. When the oscillator is above, the trend is bullish and when it is below, the trend is bearish .
6. Moving Average Convergence Divergence ( MACD ) and ( MAC-Z )
It was created by Gerald Appel. Subsequently, the histogram was added to anticipate the crossing of MA. Broadly speaking, we can say that the MACD is an oscillator consisting of two moving averages that rotate around the zero line. The MACD line is the difference between a short moving average 'MACD FAST MA LENGTH' and a long moving average 'MACD SLOW MA LENGTH'. It's an indicator that allows us to have a reference on the trend of the asset on which it is operating, thus generating market entry and exit signals.
We can talk about a bull market when the MACD histogram is above the zero line, along with the signal line, while we are talking about a bear market when the MACD histogram is below the zero line.
There is the option of using the MAC-Z indicator created by LazyBear, which according to its author is more effective, by using the parameter VWAP ( volume weighted average price ) 'Z-VWAP LENGTH' together with a standard deviation 'STDEV LENGTH' in its calculation.
7. Volume Condition
Volume indicates the number of participants in this war between bulls and bears, the more volume the more likely the price will move in favor of the trend. A low trading volume indicates a lower number of participants and interest in the instrument in question. Low volumes may reveal weakness behind a price movement.
With this condition, those signals whose volume is less than the volume SMA for a period 'SMA VOLUME LENGTH' multiplied by a factor 'VOLUME FACTOR' are filtered. In addition, it determines the leverage used, the more volume , the more participants, the more probability that the price will move in our favor, that is, we can use more leverage. The leverage in this script is determined by how many times the volume is above the SMA line.
The maximum leverage is 8.
8. Bollinger Bands
This indicator was created by John Bollinger and consists of three bands that are drawn superimposed on the price evolution graph.
The central band is a moving average, normally a simple moving average calculated with 20 periods is used. ('BB LENGTH' Number of periods of the moving average)
The upper band is calculated by adding the value of the simple moving average X times the standard deviation of the moving average. ('BB MULTIPLIER' Number of times the standard deviation of the moving average)
The lower band is calculated by subtracting the simple moving average X times the standard deviation of the moving average.
the band between the upper and lower bands contains, statistically, almost 90% of the possible price variations, which means that any movement of the price outside the bands has special relevance.
In practical terms, Bollinger bands behave as if they were an elastic band so that, if the price touches them, it has a high probability of bouncing.
Sometimes, after the entry order is filled, the price is returned to the opposite side. If price touch the Bollinger band in the same previous conditions, another order is filled in the same direction of the position to improve the average entry price, (% MINIMUM BETTER PRICE ': Minimum price for the re-entry to be executed and that is better than the price of the previous position in a given %) in this way we give the trade a chance that the Take Profit is executed before. The downside is that the position is doubled in size. 'ACTIVATE DIVIDE TP': Divide the size of the TP in half. More probability of the trade closing but less profit.
█ STOP LOSS and RISK MANAGEMENT.
A good risk management is what can make your equity go up or be liquidated.
The % risk is the percentage of our capital that we are willing to lose by operation. This is recommended to be between 1-5%.
% Risk: (% Stop Loss x % Equity per trade x Leverage) / 100
First the strategy is calculated with Stop Loss, then the risk per operation is determined and from there, the amount per operation is calculated and not vice versa.
In this script you can use a normal Stop Loss or one according to the ATR. Also activate the option to trigger it earlier if the risk percentage is reached. '% RISK ALLOWED' wich is calculated according with: '%EQUITY ON EACH ENTRY'. Only works with Stop Loss on 'NORMAL' or 'BOTH' mode.
'STOP LOSS CONFIRMED': The Stop Loss is only activated if the closing of the previous bar is in the loss limit condition. It's useful to prevent the SL from triggering when they do a ‘pump’ to sweep Stops and then return the price to the previous state.
█ ALERTS
There is an alert for each leverage, therefore a maximum of 8 alerts can be set for 'long' and 8 for 'short', plus an alert to close the trade with Take Profit or Stop Loss in market mode. You can also place Take Profit limit and Stop Loss limit orders a few seconds after filling the position entry order.
- 'MAXIMUM LEVERAGE': It is the maximum allowed multiplier of the % quantity entered on each entry for 1X according to the volume condition.
- 'ADVANCE ALERTS': There is always a time delay from when the alert is triggered until it reaches the exchange and can be between 1-15 seconds. With this parameter, you can advance the alert by the necessary seconds to activate it earlier. In this way it can be synchronized with the exchange so that the execution time of the entry order to the position coincides with the opening of the bar.
The settings are for Bitcoin at Binance Futures (BTC: USDTPERP) in 15 minutes.
For other pairs and other timeframes, the settings have to be adjusted again. And within a month, the settings will be different because we all know the market and the trend are changing.
Recherche dans les scripts pour "Trailing stop"
888 BOT #backtest█ 888 BOT #backtest (open source)
This is an Expert Advisor 'EA' or Automated trading script for ‘longs’ and ‘shorts’, which uses only a Take Profit or, in the worst case, a Stop Loss to close the trade.
It's a much improved version of the previous ‘Repanocha’. It doesn`t use 'Trailing Stop' or 'security()' functions (although using a security function doesn`t mean that the script repaints) and all signals are confirmed, therefore the script doesn`t repaint in alert mode and is accurate in backtest mode.
Apart from the previous indicators, some more and other functions have been added for Stop-Loss, re-entry and leverage.
It uses 8 indicators, (many of you already know what they are, but in case there is someone new), these are the following:
1. Jurik Moving Average
It's a moving average created by Mark Jurik for professionals which eliminates the 'lag' or delay of the signal. It's better than other moving averages like EMA , DEMA , AMA or T3.
There are two ways to decrease noise using JMA . Increasing the 'LENGTH' parameter will cause JMA to move more slowly and therefore reduce noise at the expense of adding 'lag'
The 'JMA LENGTH', 'PHASE' and 'POWER' parameters offer a way to select the optimal balance between 'lag' and over boost.
Green: Bullish , Red: Bearish .
2. Range filter
Created by Donovan Wall, its function is to filter or eliminate noise and to better determine the price trend in the short term.
First, a uniform average price range 'SAMPLING PERIOD' is calculated for the filter base and multiplied by a specific quantity 'RANGE MULTIPLIER'.
The filter is then calculated by adjusting price movements that do not exceed the specified range.
Finally, the target ranges are plotted to show the prices that will trigger the filter movement.
Green: Bullish , Red: Bearish .
3. Average Directional Index ( ADX Classic) and ( ADX Masanakamura)
It's an indicator designed by Welles Wilder to measure the strength and direction of the market trend. The price movement is strong when the ADX has a positive slope and is above a certain minimum level 'ADX THRESHOLD' and for a given period 'ADX LENGTH'.
The green color of the bars indicates that the trend is bullish and that the ADX is above the level established by the threshold.
The red color of the bars indicates that the trend is down and that the ADX is above the threshold level.
The orange color of the bars indicates that the price is not strong and will surely lateralize.
You can choose between the classic option and the one created by a certain 'Masanakamura'. The main difference between the two is that in the first it uses RMA () and in the second SMA () in its calculation.
4. Parabolic SAR
This indicator, also created by Welles Wilder, places points that help define a trend. The Parabolic SAR can follow the price above or below, the peculiarity that it offers is that when the price touches the indicator, it jumps to the other side of the price (if the Parabolic SAR was below the price it jumps up and vice versa) to a distance predetermined by the indicator. At this time the indicator continues to follow the price, reducing the distance with each candle until it is finally touched again by the price and the process starts again. This procedure explains the name of the indicator: the Parabolic SAR follows the price generating a characteristic parabolic shape, when the price touches it, stops and turns ( SAR is the acronym for 'stop and reverse'), giving rise to a new cycle. When the points are below the price, the trend is up, while the points above the price indicate a downward trend.
5. RSI with Volume
This indicator was created by LazyBear from the popular RSI .
The RSI is an oscillator-type indicator used in technical analysis and also created by Welles Wilder that shows the strength of the price by comparing individual movements up or down in successive closing prices.
LazyBear added a volume parameter that makes it more accurate to the market movement.
A good way to use RSI is by considering the 50 'RSI CENTER LINE' centerline. When the oscillator is above, the trend is bullish and when it is below, the trend is bearish .
6. Moving Average Convergence Divergence ( MACD ) and ( MAC-Z )
It was created by Gerald Appel. Subsequently, the histogram was added to anticipate the crossing of MA. Broadly speaking, we can say that the MACD is an oscillator consisting of two moving averages that rotate around the zero line. The MACD line is the difference between a short moving average 'MACD FAST MA LENGTH' and a long moving average 'MACD SLOW MA LENGTH'. It's an indicator that allows us to have a reference on the trend of the asset on which it is operating, thus generating market entry and exit signals.
We can talk about a bull market when the MACD histogram is above the zero line, along with the signal line, while we are talking about a bear market when the MACD histogram is below the zero line.
There is the option of using the MAC-Z indicator created by LazyBear, which according to its author is more effective, by using the parameter VWAP ( volume weighted average price ) 'Z-VWAP LENGTH' together with a standard deviation 'STDEV LENGTH' in its calculation.
7. Volume Condition
Volume indicates the number of participants in this war between bulls and bears, the more volume the more likely the price will move in favor of the trend. A low trading volume indicates a lower number of participants and interest in the instrument in question. Low volumes may reveal weakness behind a price movement.
With this condition, those signals whose volume is less than the volume SMA for a period 'SMA VOLUME LENGTH' multiplied by a factor 'VOLUME FACTOR' are filtered. In addition, it determines the leverage used, the more volume , the more participants, the more probability that the price will move in our favor, that is, we can use more leverage. The leverage in this script is determined by how many times the volume is above the SMA line.
The maximum leverage is 8.
8. Bollinger Bands
This indicator was created by John Bollinger and consists of three bands that are drawn superimposed on the price evolution graph.
The central band is a moving average, normally a simple moving average calculated with 20 periods is used. ('BB LENGTH' Number of periods of the moving average)
The upper band is calculated by adding the value of the simple moving average X times the standard deviation of the moving average. ('BB MULTIPLIER' Number of times the standard deviation of the moving average)
The lower band is calculated by subtracting the simple moving average X times the standard deviation of the moving average.
the band between the upper and lower bands contains, statistically, almost 90% of the possible price variations, which means that any movement of the price outside the bands has special relevance.
In practical terms, Bollinger bands behave as if they were an elastic band so that, if the price touches them, it has a high probability of bouncing.
Sometimes, after the entry order is filled, the price is returned to the opposite side. If price touch the Bollinger band in the same previous conditions, another order is filled in the same direction of the position to improve the average entry price, (% MINIMUM BETTER PRICE ': Minimum price for the re-entry to be executed and that is better than the price of the previous position in a given %) in this way we give the trade a chance that the Take Profit is executed before. The downside is that the position is doubled in size. 'ACTIVATE DIVIDE TP': Divide the size of the TP in half. More probability of the trade closing but less profit.
█ STOP LOSS and RISK MANAGEMENT.
A good risk management is what can make your equity go up or be liquidated.
The % risk is the percentage of our capital that we are willing to lose by operation. This is recommended to be between 1-5%.
% Risk: (% Stop Loss x % Equity per trade x Leverage) / 100
First the strategy is calculated with Stop Loss, then the risk per operation is determined and from there, the amount per operation is calculated and not vice versa.
In this script you can use a normal Stop Loss or one according to the ATR. Also activate the option to trigger it earlier if the risk percentage is reached. '% RISK ALLOWED'
'STOP LOSS CONFIRMED': The Stop Loss is only activated if the closing of the previous bar is in the loss limit condition. It's useful to prevent the SL from triggering when they do a ‘pump’ to sweep Stops and then return the price to the previous state.
█ BACKTEST
The objective of the Backtest is to evaluate the effectiveness of our strategy. A good Backtest is determined by some parameters such as:
- RECOVERY FACTOR: It consists of dividing the 'net profit' by the 'drawdown’. An excellent trading system has a recovery factor of 10 or more; that is, it generates 10 times more net profit than drawdown.
- PROFIT FACTOR: The ‘Profit Factor’ is another popular measure of system performance. It's as simple as dividing what win trades earn by what loser trades lose. If the strategy is profitable then by definition the 'Profit Factor' is going to be greater than 1. Strategies that are not profitable produce profit factors less than one. A good system has a profit factor of 2 or more. The good thing about the ‘Profit Factor’ is that it tells us what we are going to earn for each dollar we lose. A profit factor of 2.5 tells us that for every dollar we lose operating we will earn 2.5.
- SHARPE: (Return system - Return without risk) / Deviation of returns.
When the variations of gains and losses are very high, the deviation is very high and that leads to a very poor ‘Sharpe’ ratio. If the operations are very close to the average (little deviation) the result is a fairly high 'Sharpe' ratio. If a strategy has a 'Sharpe' ratio greater than 1 it is a good strategy. If it has a 'Sharpe' ratio greater than 2, it is excellent. If it has a ‘Sharpe’ ratio less than 1 then we don't know if it is good or bad, we have to look at other parameters.
- MATHEMATICAL EXPECTATION: (% winning trades X average profit) + (% losing trades X average loss).
To earn money with a Trading system, it is not necessary to win all the operations, what is really important is the final result of the operation. A Trading system has to have positive mathematical expectation as is the case with this script: ME = (0.87 x 30.74$) - (0.13 x 56.16$) = (26.74 - 7.30) = 19.44$ > 0
The game of roulette, for example, has negative mathematical expectation for the player, it can have positive winning streaks, but in the long term, if you continue playing you will end up losing, and casinos know this very well.
PARAMETERS
'BACKTEST DAYS': Number of days back of historical data for the calculation of the Backtest.
'ENTRY TYPE': For '% EQUITY' if you have $ 10,000 of capital and select 7.5%, for example, your entry would be $ 750 without leverage. If you select CONTRACTS for the 'BTCUSDT' pair, for example, it would be the amount in 'Bitcoins' and if you select 'CASH' it would be the amount in $ dollars.
'QUANTITY (LEVERAGE 1X)': The amount for an entry with X1 leverage according to the previous section.
'MAXIMUM LEVERAGE': It's the maximum allowed multiplier of the quantity entered in the previous section according to the volume condition.
The settings are for Bitcoin at Binance Futures (BTC: USDTPERP) in 15 minutes.
For other pairs and other timeframes, the settings have to be adjusted again. And within a month, the settings will be different because we all know the market and the trend are changing.
BuyHigh-SellLow StrategyYeah. You read it right. It's not a mistake. It is buy high and sell low strategy.
Main entry condition is to buy when price hits 40 day Donchian channel top. This is combined with my other regular filters which are aligned moving average and new high/low filter and yearly high/low filter.
Exit condition can be based on two things:
Donchian channel : Set appropriate DonchianExitLength. Lower line of donchian channel acts as trailing stop.
ATR Based trailing stop : Select appropriate ATR multiplier and length.
What a surprise!! You can buy high, sell low and still make money.
Chandelier Exit | SAR/Long Only (4CUP)As introduced by StockCharts.com, Chandelier Exit was developed by Charles Le Beau and featured in Alexander Elder's books, this sets a trailing stop-loss based on the Average True Range (ATR).
Chandelier Exit can be formulated as a stop-and-reverse (SAR) or as a traditional trailing stop-loss version shown by Stockcharts.com.
The main difference is that, in SAR version, the indicator is usually formulated in a higher of previous or spot indicator (HPS) for long and lower of previous and spot indicator (LPS) for short position.
This indicator is coded to show both the SAR version and the traditional one shown by Stockcharts.com (for long position) by simply clicking a tick in the Version box.
The ATR multiplier is relaxed to allow non-integer input, like 3.5, 4.25, ... for a greater flexibility to tailor your best-fit exit strategy.
If you find this indicator is useful to you, Star it, Follow, Donate, Like and Share.
Your support is a highly motivation for me.
Williams Fractal Trailing StopsUnlike the built-in version, you can configure how many bars it takes to confirm a fractal. This indicator plots all Williams high and low fractals, and a stop line that trails the fractals up and down. Includes long and short stop alerts. You can choose whether the trail flips long-short based on the price being exceeded within a candle or on candle close. This indicator deals only with fractals and doesn't get into the Alligator or anything else.
I've commented it extensively, so that it might be useful for people learning Pinescript. Enjoy!
Why is it ok to backtest on TradingView from now on!TradingView backtester has bad reputation. For a good reason - it was producing wrong results, and it was clear at first sight how bad they were.
But this has changed. Along with many other improvements in its PineScript coding capabilities, TradingView fixed important bug, which was the main reason for miscalculations. TradingView didn't really speak out about this fix, so let me try :)
Have a look at this short code of a swing trading strategy (PLEASE DON'T FOCUS ON BACKTEST RESULTS ATTACHED HERE - THEY DO NOT MATTER). Sometimes entry condition happens together with closing condition for the already ongoing trade. Example: the condition to close Long entry is the same as a condition to enter Short. And when these two aligned, not only a Long was closed and Short was entered (as intended), but also a second Short was entered, too!!! What's even worse, that second short was not controlled with closing conditions inside strategy.exit() function and it very often lead to losses exceeding whatever was declared in "loss=" parameter. This could not have worked well...
But HOORAY!!! - it has been fixed and won't happen anymore. So together with other improvements - TradingView's backtester and PineScript is now ok to work with on standard candlesticks :)
Yep, no need to code strategies and backtest them on other platforms anymore.
----------------
Having said the above, there are still some pitfalls remaining, which you need to be aware of and avoid:
Don't backtest on HeikenAshi, Renko, Kagi candlesticks. They were not invented with backtesting in mind. There are still using wrong price levels for entries and therefore producing always too good backtesting results. Only standard candlesticks are reliable to backtest on.
Don't use Trailing Stop in your code. TradingView operates only on closed candlesticks, not on tick data and because of that, backtester will always assume price has first reached its favourable extreme (so 'high' when you are in Long trade and 'low' when you are in Short trade) before it starts to pull back. Which is rarely the truth in reality. Therefore strategies using Trailing Stop are also producing too good backtesting results. It is especially well visible on higher timeframe strategies - for some reason your strategy manages to make gains on those huge, fat candlesticks :) But that's not reality.
"when=" inside strategy.exit() does not work as you would intuitively expect. If you want to have logical condition to close your trade (for example - crossover(rsi(close,14),20)) you need to place it inside strategy.close() function. And leave StopLoss + TakeProfit conditions inside strategy.exit() function. Just as in attached code.
If you're working with pyramiding, add "process_orders_on_close=ANY" to your strategy() script header. Default setting ("=FIFO") will first close the trade, which was opened first, not the one which was hit by Stop-Loss condidtion.
----------------
That's it, I guess :) If you are noticing other issues with backtester and would like to share, let everyone know in comments. If the issue is indeed a bug, there is a chance TradingView dev team will hear your voice and take it into account when working on other improvements. Just like they heard about the bug I described above.
P.S. I know for a fact that more improvements in the backtesting area are coming. Some will change the game even for non-coding traders. If you want to be notified quickly and with my comment - gimme "follow".
BEST Trailing Take Profit StrategyHello traders
Hope you enjoyed your weekend on my behalf. Was staying home working ... ^^
This is my first strategy educational post I'm doing ever
While I'm generally against posting strategies because it's very easy to fake performance numbers... I cannot prevent myself from sharing a few cool strategy snippets anyway.
So from now on, I'll be sharing a few strategies also - generally not to showcase performance but only to show what pinescript can do.
As once again strategy performance can be faked is so many ways... :)
What's on the menu?
We all know what a trailing-stop is. right? right? Ok... sharing the definition here :)
A trailing stop is designed to protect gains by enabling a trade to remain open and continue to profit as long as the price is moving in the investor's favor. The order closes the trade if the price changes direction by a specified percentage or dollar amount.
But...do you know what a trailing profit is?
Short definition : Well the same but with your profit limit order.
Long definition : A trailing profit is designed to increase your gains by enabling a trade to remain open and continue to profit as long as the price is moving in the investor's favor. The order closes the trade if the price hits the trailing profit level specified percentage or dollar amount.
Some trading strategies used both a trailing stop AND trailing profit. Not making any recommendation here - only sharing what's possible in the realm of trading and pinescripting
Trigger me I'm famous
I developed many trading strategies in my career and often I've been asked to trigger a trailing-stop or trailing-profit once a certain % move has been made.
I integrated here a Take Profit trigger - once hit, it will activate the trailing profit
On the screenshot below, the TP trigger is plotted in orange. Once the price goes past that level for the first time, I'll start trailing the profit level.
In other words, when we see a price makes an interesting move in percentage value - we decide to offset the profit as we concluded that once it reached such distance - then it leads often to more profit
Of course, using only a trailing profit without stop/trailing-stop/invalidation isn't smart and the surest way to kiss goodbye a trading capital and trading and your good mood
See you tomorrow for another strategy snippet
All the BEST
Dave
ATR + Trailing StopsSimple visualisation of Average True Range in Pinescript V4.
The script has two modes: Running and Trailing.
In Running mode, it continuously displays the ATR above and below the price. Specifically, it displays the High and Low price plus and minus the ATR times a user-supplied multiplier. This can be helpful for visualising volatility.
In Trailing mode, it displays the same ATR line, except the line trails until price crosses it. When price crosses it, it flips from long to short or vice-versa.
You could use trailing ATR as a stop loss. Adjust the multiplier and lookback period for your asset and preference.
Parabolic SARThis is a redesign of the built-in Parabolic SAR indicator. I added a proper input system, an option to highlight initial points for both lines and an option to choose points width. So, customize it as you want.
Parabolic SAR was originally developed by J. Welles Wilder and described in his book "New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems" (1978). It is a trend-following indicator that can be used as a trailing stop loss.
To know which settings for PSAR are the most profitable on your instrument and timeframe you can use this tool
Profitable Parabolic SAR
Repulsion Moving Average - Least Crosses MAA Moving Average With Less Whipsaws Signals
The cross of the price with a moving average is one of the easiest strategy in technical analysis and could have worked if market price wasn't so noisy (In general periods of 1 to 20 produces the most whipsaws) . So it is possible to create a moving average who can manage to escape those noisy periods and produce 0 whipsaws ?
This question was asked by one of my work colleagues and i responded : "well... almost 0".
The Motion Of A Moving Average
Moving Average estimate the Trend and will always have phase shift, they will still follow the price and cross it during high volatility or low volatility periods, and when a moving average cross the price during a low volatility period you can expect lot of crosses.
In order to fix this behaviour a simple calculation exist :
FixMa = LongPeriodMA + MediumPeriodMA - ShortPeriodMA
We can see things in that way, the medium term MA is high pass filtered (subtracted) with a short term MA and the result is summed to a long term MA. We give more reactivity to our long term MA and thus creating some kind of repulsion motion with the price. Of course this can sometimes make the filter kinda zero-lag to some price periods (when the long term MA is near the price) .
Comparison
In red a simple moving average of period 100 and in blue our repulsion moving average :
In the image the short term moving average period is 100, since the long term period of the moving average is equal to short term x 3 you could be interested to look at the comparison of our moving average with the actual long term moving average :
Less crosses, i think you can see it.
Something to notice is that its always a tradeoff between Signal Speed and Signal Numbers , a classic moving average create faster signals but also a high numbers of them, a classic trailing stop create less signals but slowest ones, our moving average is some kind of average between those indicators.
Improvement Methods - Choice of The Filter/More Terms
A bad behaviour of our filter can be fixed by using filters who tend to create less crosses with the price or by developing the formula of our filter by adding more terms as follow :
fixma = ma(Price,a) + ma(Price,b) + ma(Price,c) - ma(Price,d) - ma(Price,e)
where a > b > c > d > e . The number of subtractive terms is equal to the number of summing terms - 1.
Way To Use
This indicator can be used like any moving average with cross strategy. Can also be used as a trailing stop.
No tests have been made proving that this indicator provide support and resistance levels, such signals come from more centered indicators.
Hope you enjoy
For any questions/demands feel free to pm me, i would be happy to help you :)
MACD Study DASH/BTC 3H ALERTS for AutoviewAutoview qualified Study Script Alerts for Autoview
Please Set Up Alert 1x Bars Close
For Margin Trading (Poloniex)
ULTIMATE PINE INJECTOR V1.2 INSERT
MACD Created by user ChrisMoody
NO REPAINT
With Stopp Loss and Trailing Stopp and Backtest
Now is for Free for all !
Strategy CCTBBO v2 | FadiorSecond version of the CCTBBO strategy. CCTBBO is a price oscillator that fluctuate between -200 and 200 according to price volatility. Value 0 represent mean price - 2 * StdDev and value 100 represent mean price + 2 * StdDev.
Signal is generated when oscillator cross over / under it's EMA. Position is closed with trailing stop. Source of the indicator is the highs of the last n bars.
Tips if you want to trade with it :
- use small EMA period to increase number of signals and fasten detection of price reversal.
- If there is too much signals you can try increase EMA or filter noise by playing with the margin. The margin is the minimum value between the oscillator and it's moving average to consider a signal valid.
- define your trailing stop by percentage of the price or by ticks. Default value 0.013 equal 1.3% of the Bitcoin price which is approximatly $5.
- make sure you correctly set the number of digits of your current security
therebel Magic SystemSimple programming exercise of the system described by /u/therebel.
Signals MACD crossover on price above and below EMA 200 (blue for longs, red for shorts).
You should wait for the candle to close before considering the signal. And always check the fundamentals.
Risk less than 2% per trade, allow winners to run using a trailing stop.
When the market has proved you wrong exit with out any hesitation. This is key.
Might be useful for someone, but don't take it too seriously. If I might add something, I think a good trailing stop can be the previous candle wick.
Ichimoku-Hausky_v2 Trading SystemMade a new version of my trading system. I have added a cloud that is made with 45 EMA and 104 MA. Now you can choose where to set trailing stop. As shown in the example you set trailing stop under the cloud.
Volatility StopThe Volatility Stop Indicator is able to define the current trend. When a downward trend is determined a red line above the prices bars is plotted; when an upward trend is determined a green line below the prices bars is plotted. These lines are generally used as trailing stops. The Volatility Stop Indicator is more used as an exit tool than an entry tool. When the price crosses the VStop value, the trend reverses and VStop moves to the other side of price.
We'd like to present you VStop indicator written in Pine Script. Please notice new Pine Script features used in this indicator: variables max_, min_, is_uptrend, vstop. We may refer to previous values of the indicator in the source code (e.g. vstop , is a vstop value on the previous bar) before the actual vstop variable definition. Enjoy and leave your comments!
Luxy Super-Duper SuperTrend Predictor Engine and Buy/Sell signalA professional trend-following grading system that analyzes historical trend
patterns to provide statistical duration estimates using advanced similarity
matching and k-nearest neighbors analysis. Combines adaptive Supertrend with
intelligent duration statistics, multi-timeframe confluence, volume confirmation,
and quality scoring to identify high-probability setups with data-driven
target ranges across all timeframes.
Note: All duration estimates are statistical calculations based on historical data, not guarantees of future performance.
WHAT MAKES THIS DIFFERENT
Unlike traditional SuperTrend indicators that only tell you trend direction, this system answers the critical question: "What is the typical duration for trends like this?"
The Statistical Analysis Engine:
• Analyzes your chart's last 15+ completed SuperTrend trends (bullish and bearish separately)
• Uses k-nearest neighbors similarity matching to find historically similar setups
• Calculates statistical duration estimates based on current market conditions
• Learns from estimation errors and adapts over time (Advanced mode)
• Displays visual duration analysis box showing median, average, and range estimates
• Tracks Statistical accuracy with backtest statistics
Complete Trading System:
• Statistical trend duration analysis with three intelligence levels
• Adaptive Supertrend with dynamic ATR-based bands
• Multi-timeframe confluence analysis (6 timeframes: 5M to 1W)
• Volume confirmation with spike detection and momentum tracking
• Quality scoring system (0-70 points) rating each setup
• One-click preset optimization for all trading styles
• Anti-repaint guarantee on all signals and duration estimates
METHODOLOGY CREDITS
This indicator's approach is inspired by proven trading methodologies from respected market educators:
• Mark Minervini - Volatility Contraction Pattern (VCP) and pullback entry techniques
• William O'Neil - Volume confirmation principles and institutional buying patterns (CANSLIM methodology)
• Dan Zanger - Volatility expansion entries and momentum breakout strategies
Important: These are educational references only. This indicator does not guarantee any specific trading results. Always conduct your own analysis and risk management.
KEY FEATURES
1. TREND DURATION ANALYSIS SYSTEM - The Core Innovation
The statistical analysis engine is what sets this indicator apart from standard SuperTrend systems. It doesn't just identify trend changes - it provides statistical analysis of potential duration.
How It Works:
Step 1: Historical Tracking
• Automatically records every completed SuperTrend trend (duration in bars)
• Maintains separate databases for bullish trends and bearish trends
• Stores up to 15 most recent trends of each type
• Captures market conditions at each trend flip: volume ratio, ATR ratio, quality score, price distance from SuperTrend, proximity to support/resistance
Step 2: Similarity Matching (k-Nearest Neighbors)
• When new trend begins, system compares current conditions to ALL historical flips
• Calculates similarity score based on:
- Volume similarity (30% weight) - Is volume behaving similarly?
- Volatility similarity (30% weight) - Is ATR/volatility similar?
- Quality similarity (20% weight) - Is setup strength comparable?
- Distance similarity (10% weight) - Is price distance from ST similar?
- Support/Resistance proximity (10% weight) - Similar structural context?
• Selects the 15 MOST SIMILAR historical trends (not just all trends)
• This is like asking: "When conditions looked like this before, how long did trends last?"
Step 3: Statistical Analysis
• Calculates median duration (most common outcome)
• Calculates average duration (mean of similar trends)
• Determines realistic range (min to max of similar trends)
• Applies exponential weighting (recent trends weighted more heavily)
• Outputs confidence-weighted statistical estimate
Step 4: Advanced Intelligence (Advanced Mode Only)
The Advanced mode applies five sophisticated multipliers to refine estimates:
A) Market Structure Multiplier (±30%):
• Detects nearby support/resistance levels using pivot detection
• If flip occurs NEAR a key level: Estimate adjusted -30% (expect bounce/rejection)
• If flip occurs in open space: Estimate adjusted +30% (clear path for continuation)
• Uses configurable lookback period and ATR-based proximity threshold
B) Asset Type Multiplier (±40%):
• Adjusts duration estimates based on asset volatility characteristics
• Small Cap / Biotech: +40% (explosive, extended moves)
• Tech Growth: +20% (momentum-driven, longer trends)
• Blue Chip / Large Cap: 0% (baseline, steady trends)
• Dividend / Value: -20% (slower, grinding trends)
• Cyclical: Variable based on macro regime
• Crypto / High Volatility: +30% (parabolic potential)
C) Flip Strength Multiplier (±20%):
• Analyzes the QUALITY of the trend flip itself
• Strong flip (high volume + expanding ATR + quality score 60+): +20%
• Weak flip (low volume + contracting ATR + quality score under 40): -20%
• Logic: Historical data shows that powerful flips tend to be followed by longer trends
D) Error Learning Multiplier (±15%):
• Tracks Statistical accuracy over last 10 completed trends
• Calculates error ratio: (estimated duration / Actual Duration)
• If system consistently over-estimates: Apply -15% correction
• If system consistently under-estimates: Apply +15% correction
• Learns and adapts to current market regime
E) Regime Detection Multiplier (±20%):
• Analyzes last 3 trends of SAME TYPE (bull-to-bull or bear-to-bear)
• Compares recent trend durations to historical average
• If recent trends 20%+ longer than average: +20% adjustment (trending regime detected)
• If recent trends 20%+ shorter than average: -20% adjustment (choppy regime detected)
• Detects whether market is in trending or mean-reversion mode
Three analysis modes:
SIMPLE MODE - Basic Statistics
• Uses raw median of similar trends only
• No multipliers, no adjustments
• Best for: Beginners, clean trending markets
• Fastest calculations, minimal complexity
STANDARD MODE - Full Statistical Analysis
• Similarity matching with k-nearest neighbors
• Exponential weighting of recent trends
• Median, average, and range calculations
• Best for: Most traders, general market conditions
• Balance of accuracy and simplicity
ADVANCED MODE - Statistics + Intelligence
• Everything in Standard mode PLUS
• All 5 advanced multipliers (structure, asset type, flip strength, learning, regime)
• Highest Statistical accuracy in testing
• Best for: Experienced traders, volatile/complex markets
• Maximum intelligence, most adaptive
Visual Duration Analysis Box:
When a new trend begins (SuperTrend flip), a box appears on your chart showing:
• Analysis Mode (Simple / Standard / Advanced)
• Number of historical trends analyzed
• Median expected duration (most likely outcome)
• Average expected duration (mean of similar trends)
• Range (minimum to maximum from similar trends)
• Advanced multipliers breakdown (Advanced mode only)
• Backtest accuracy statistics (if available)
The box extends from the flip bar to the estimated endpoint based on historical data, giving you a visual target for trend duration. Box updates in real-time as trend progresses.
Backtest & Accuracy Tracking:
• System backtests its own duration estimates using historical data
• Shows accuracy metrics: how well duration estimates matched actual durations
• Tracks last 10 completed duration estimates separately
• Displays statistics in dashboard and duration analysis boxes
• Helps you understand statistical reliability on your specific symbol/timeframe
Anti-Repaint Guarantee:
• duration analysis boxes only appear AFTER bar close (barstate.isconfirmed)
• Historical duration estimates never disappear or change
• What you see in history is exactly what you would have seen real-time
• No future data leakage, no lookahead bias
2. INTELLIGENT PRESET CONFIGURATIONS - One-Click Optimization
Unlike indicators that require tedious parameter tweaking, this system includes professionally optimized presets for every trading style. Select your approach from the dropdown and ALL parameters auto-configure.
"AUTO (DETECT FROM TF)" - RECOMMENDED
The smartest option: automatically selects optimal settings based on your chart timeframe.
• 1m-5m charts → Scalping preset (ATR: 7, Mult: 2.0)
• 15m-1h charts → Day Trading preset (ATR: 10, Mult: 2.5)
• 2h-4h-D charts → Swing Trading preset (ATR: 14, Mult: 3.0)
• W-M charts → Position Trading preset (ATR: 21, Mult: 4.0)
Benefits:
• Zero configuration - works immediately
• Always matched to your timeframe
• Switch timeframe = automatic adjustment
• Perfect for traders who use multiple timeframes
"SCALPING (1-5M)" - Ultra-Fast Signals
Optimized for: 1-5 minute charts, high-frequency trading, quick profits
Target holding period: Minutes to 1-2 hours maximum
Best markets: High-volume stocks, major crypto pairs, active futures
Parameter Configuration:
• Supertrend: ATR 7, Multiplier 2.0 (very sensitive)
• Volume: MA 10, High 1.8x, Spike 3.0x (catches quick surges)
• Volume Momentum: AUTO-DISABLED (too restrictive for fast scalping)
• Quality minimum: 40 points (accepts more setups)
• Duration Analysis: Uses last 15 trends with heavy recent weighting
Trading Logic:
Speed over precision. Short ATR period and low multiplier create highly responsive SuperTrend. Volume momentum filter disabled to avoid missing fast moves. Quality threshold relaxed to catch more opportunities in rapid market conditions.
Signals per session: 5-15 typically
Hold time: Minutes to couple hours
Best for: Active traders with fast execution
"DAY TRADING (15M-1H)" - Balanced Approach
Optimized for: 15-minute to 1-hour charts, intraday moves, session-based trading
Target holding period: 30 minutes to 8 hours (within trading day)
Best markets: Large-cap stocks, major indices, established crypto
Parameter Configuration:
• Supertrend: ATR 10, Multiplier 2.5 (balanced)
• Volume: MA 20, High 1.5x, Spike 2.5x (standard detection)
• Volume Momentum: 5/20 periods (confirms intraday strength)
• Quality minimum: 50 points (good setups preferred)
• Duration Analysis: Balanced weighting of recent vs historical
Trading Logic:
The most balanced configuration. ATR 10 with multiplier 2.5 provides steady trend following that avoids noise while catching meaningful moves. Volume momentum confirms institutional participation without being overly restrictive.
Signals per session: 2-5 typically
Hold time: 30 minutes to full day
Best for: Part-time and full-time active traders
"SWING TRADING (4H-D)" - Trend Stability
Optimized for: 4-hour to Daily charts, multi-day holds, trend continuation
Target holding period: 2-15 days typically
Best markets: Growth stocks, sector ETFs, trending crypto, commodity futures
Parameter Configuration:
• Supertrend: ATR 14, Multiplier 3.0 (stable)
• Volume: MA 30, High 1.3x, Spike 2.2x (accumulation focus)
• Volume Momentum: 10/30 periods (trend stability)
• Quality minimum: 60 points (high-quality setups only)
• Duration Analysis: Favors consistent historical patterns
Trading Logic:
Designed for substantial trend moves while filtering short-term noise. Higher ATR period and multiplier create stable SuperTrend that won't flip on minor corrections. Stricter quality requirements ensure only strongest setups generate signals.
Signals per week: 2-5 typically
Hold time: Days to couple weeks
Best for: Part-time traders, swing style
"POSITION TRADING (D-W)" - Long-Term Trends
Optimized for: Daily to Weekly charts, major trend changes, portfolio allocation
Target holding period: Weeks to months
Best markets: Blue-chip stocks, major indices, established cryptocurrencies
Parameter Configuration:
• Supertrend: ATR 21, Multiplier 4.0 (very stable)
• Volume: MA 50, High 1.2x, Spike 2.0x (long-term accumulation)
• Volume Momentum: 20/50 periods (major trend confirmation)
• Quality minimum: 70 points (excellent setups only)
• Duration Analysis: Heavy emphasis on multi-year historical data
Trading Logic:
Conservative approach focusing on major trend changes. Extended ATR period and high multiplier create SuperTrend that only flips on significant reversals. Very strict quality filters ensure signals represent genuine long-term opportunities.
Signals per month: 1-2 typically
Hold time: Weeks to months
Best for: Long-term investors, set-and-forget approach
"CUSTOM" - Advanced Configuration
Purpose: Complete manual control for experienced traders
Use when: You understand the parameters and want specific optimization
Best for: Testing new approaches, unusual market conditions, specific instruments
Full control over:
• All SuperTrend parameters
• Volume thresholds and momentum periods
• Quality scoring weights
• analysis mode and multipliers
• Advanced features tuning
Preset Comparison Quick Reference:
Chart Timeframe: Scalping (1M-5M) | Day Trading (15M-1H) | Swing (4H-D) | Position (D-W)
Signals Frequency: Very High | High | Medium | Low
Hold Duration: Minutes | Hours | Days | Weeks-Months
Quality Threshold: 40 pts | 50 pts | 60 pts | 70 pts
ATR Sensitivity: Highest | Medium | Lower | Lowest
Time Investment: Highest | High | Medium | Lowest
Experience Level: Expert | Advanced | Intermediate | Beginner+
3. QUALITY SCORING SYSTEM (0-70 Points)
Every signal is rated in real-time across three dimensions:
Volume Confirmation (0-30 points):
• Volume Spike (2.5x+ average): 30 points
• High Volume (1.5x+ average): 20 points
• Above Average (1.0x+ average): 10 points
• Below Average: 0 points
Volatility Assessment (0-30 points):
• Expanding ATR (1.2x+ average): 30 points
• Rising ATR (1.0-1.2x average): 15 points
• Contracting/Stable ATR: 0 points
Volume Momentum (0-10 points):
• Strong Momentum (1.2x+ ratio): 10 points
• Rising Momentum (1.0-1.2x ratio): 5 points
• Weak/Neutral Momentum: 0 points
Score Interpretation:
60-70 points - EXCELLENT:
• All factors aligned
• High conviction setup
• Maximum position size (within risk limits)
• Primary trading opportunities
45-59 points - STRONG:
• Multiple confirmations present
• Above-average setup quality
• Standard position size
• Good trading opportunities
30-44 points - GOOD:
• Basic confirmations met
• Acceptable setup quality
• Reduced position size
• Wait for additional confirmation or trade smaller
Below 30 points - WEAK:
• Minimal confirmations
• Low probability setup
• Consider passing
• Only for aggressive traders in strong trends
Only signals meeting your minimum quality threshold (configurable per preset) generate alerts and labels.
4. MULTI-TIMEFRAME CONFLUENCE ANALYSIS
The system can simultaneously analyze trend alignment across 6 timeframes (optional feature):
Timeframes analyzed:
• 5-minute (scalping context)
• 15-minute (intraday momentum)
• 1-hour (day trading bias)
• 4-hour (swing context)
• Daily (primary trend)
• Weekly (macro trend)
Confluence Interpretation:
• 5-6/6 aligned - Very strong multi-timeframe agreement (highest confidence)
• 3-4/6 aligned - Moderate agreement (standard setup)
• 1-2/6 aligned - Weak agreement (caution advised)
Dashboard shows real-time alignment count with color-coding. Higher confluence typically correlates with longer, stronger trends.
5. VOLUME MOMENTUM FILTER - Institutional Money Flow
Unlike traditional volume indicators that just measure size, Volume Momentum tracks the RATE OF CHANGE in volume:
How it works:
• Compares short-term volume average (fast period) to long-term average (slow period)
• Ratio above 1.0 = Volume accelerating (money flowing IN)
• Ratio above 1.2 = Strong acceleration (institutional participation likely)
• Ratio below 0.8 = Volume decelerating (money flowing OUT)
Why it matters:
• Confirms trend with actual money flow, not just price
• Leading indicator (volume often leads price)
• Catches accumulation/distribution before breakouts
• More intuitive than complex mathematical filters
Integration with signals:
• Optional filter - can be enabled/disabled per preset
• When enabled: Only signals with rising volume momentum fire
• AUTO-DISABLED in Scalping mode (too restrictive for fast trading)
• Configurable fast/slow periods per trading style
6. ADAPTIVE SUPERTREND MULTIPLIER
Traditional SuperTrend uses fixed ATR multiplier. This system dynamically adjusts the multiplier (0.8x to 1.2x base) based on:
• Trend Strength: Price correlation over lookback period
• Volume Weight: Current volume relative to average
Benefits:
• Tighter bands in calm markets (less premature exits)
• Wider bands in volatile conditions (avoids whipsaws)
• Better adaptation to biotech, small-cap, and crypto volatility
• Optional - can be disabled for classic constant multiplier
7. VISUAL GRADIENT RIBBON
26-layer exponential gradient fill between price and SuperTrend line provides instant visual trend strength assessment:
Color System:
• Green shades - Bullish trend + volume confirmation (strongest)
• Blue shades - Bullish trend, normal volume
• Orange shades - Bearish trend + volume confirmation
• Red shades - Bearish trend (weakest)
Opacity varies based on:
• Distance from SuperTrend (farther = more opaque)
• Volume intensity (higher volume = stronger color)
The ribbon provides at-a-glance trend strength without cluttering your chart. Can be toggled on/off.
8. INTELLIGENT ALERT SYSTEM
Two-tier alert architecture for flexibility:
Automatic Alerts:
• Fire automatically on BUY and SELL signals
• Include full context: quality score, volume state, volume momentum
• One alert per bar close (alert.freq_once_per_bar_close)
• Message format: "BUY: Supertrend bullish + Quality: 65/70 | Volume: HIGH | Vol Momentum: STRONG (1.35x)"
Customizable Alert Conditions:
• Appear in TradingView's "Create Alert" dialog
• Three options: BUY Signal Only, SELL Signal Only, ANY Signal (BUY or SELL)
• Use TradingView placeholders: {{ticker}}, {{interval}}, {{close}}, {{time}}
• Fully customizable message templates
All alerts use barstate.isconfirmed - Zero repaint guarantee.
9. ANTI-REPAINT ARCHITECTURE
Every component guaranteed non-repainting:
• Entry signals: Only appear after bar close
• duration analysis boxes: Created only on confirmed SuperTrend flips
• Informative labels: Wait for bar confirmation
• Alerts: Fire once per closed bar
• Multi-timeframe data: Uses lookahead=barmerge.lookahead_off
What you see in history is exactly what you would have seen in real-time. No disappearing signals, no changed duration estimates.
HOW TO USE THE INDICATOR
QUICK START - 3 Steps to Trading:
Step 1: Select Your Trading Style
Open indicator settings → "Quick Setup" section → Trading Style Preset dropdown
Options:
• Auto (Detect from TF) - RECOMMENDED: Automatically configures based on your chart timeframe
• Scalping (1-5m) - For 1-5 minute charts, ultra-fast signals
• Day Trading (15m-1h) - For 15m-1h charts, balanced approach
• Swing Trading (4h-D) - For 4h-Daily charts, trend stability
• Position Trading (D-W) - For Daily-Weekly charts, long-term trends
• Custom - Manual configuration (advanced users only)
Choose "Auto" and you're done - all parameters optimize automatically.
Step 2: Understand the Signals
BUY Signal (Green Triangle Below Price):
• SuperTrend flipped bullish
• Quality score meets minimum threshold (varies by preset)
• Volume confirmation present (if filter enabled)
• Volume momentum rising (if filter enabled)
• duration analysis box shows expected trend duration
SELL Signal (Red Triangle Above Price):
• SuperTrend flipped bearish
• Quality score meets minimum threshold
• Volume confirmation present (if filter enabled)
• Volume momentum rising (if filter enabled)
• duration analysis box shows expected trend duration
Duration Analysis Box:
• Appears at SuperTrend flip (start of new trend)
• Shows median, average, and range duration estimates
• Extends to estimated endpoint based on historical data visually
• Updates mode-specific intelligence (Simple/Standard/Advanced)
Step 3: Use the Dashboard for Context
Dashboard (top-right corner) shows real-time metrics:
• Row 1 - Quality Score: Current setup rating (0-70)
• Row 2 - SuperTrend: Direction and current level
• Row 3 - Volume: Status (Spike/High/Normal/Low) with color
• Row 4 - Volatility: State (Expanding/Rising/Stable/Contracting)
• Row 5 - Volume Momentum: Ratio and trend
• Row 6 - Duration Statistics: Accuracy metrics and track record
Every cell has detailed tooltip - hover for full explanations.
SIGNAL INTERPRETATION BY QUALITY SCORE:
Excellent Setup (60-70 points):
• Quality Score: 60-70
• Volume: Spike or High
• Volatility: Expanding
• Volume Momentum: Strong (1.2x+)
• MTF Confluence (if enabled): 5-6/6
• Action: Primary trade - maximum position size (within risk limits)
• Statistical reliability: Highest - duration estimates most accurate
Strong Setup (45-59 points):
• Quality Score: 45-59
• Volume: High or Above Average
• Volatility: Rising
• Volume Momentum: Rising (1.0-1.2x)
• MTF Confluence (if enabled): 3-4/6
• Action: Standard trade - normal position size
• Statistical reliability: Good - duration estimates reliable
Good Setup (30-44 points):
• Quality Score: 30-44
• Volume: Above Average
• Volatility: Stable or Rising
• Volume Momentum: Neutral to Rising
• MTF Confluence (if enabled): 3-4/6
• Action: Cautious trade - reduced position size, wait for additional confirmation
• Statistical reliability: Moderate - duration estimates less certain
Weak Setup (Below 30 points):
• Quality Score: Below 30
• Volume: Low or Normal
• Volatility: Contracting or Stable
• Volume Momentum: Weak
• MTF Confluence (if enabled): 1-2/6
• Action: Pass or wait for improvement
• Statistical reliability: Low - duration estimates unreliable
USING duration analysis boxES FOR TRADE MANAGEMENT:
Entry Timing:
• Enter on SuperTrend flip (signal bar close)
• duration analysis box appears simultaneously
• Note the median duration - this is your expected hold time
Profit Targets:
• Conservative: Use MEDIAN duration as profit target (50% probability)
• Moderate: Use AVERAGE duration (mean of similar trends)
• Aggressive: Aim for MAX duration from range (best historical outcome)
Position Management:
• Scale out at median duration (take partial profits)
• Trail stop as trend extends beyond median
• Full exit at average duration or SuperTrend flip (whichever comes first)
• Re-evaluate if trend exceeds estimated range
analysis mode Selection:
• Simple: Clean trending markets, beginners, minimal complexity
• Standard: Most markets, most traders (recommended default)
• Advanced: Volatile markets, complex instruments, experienced traders seeking highest accuracy
Asset Type Configuration (Advanced Mode):
If using Advanced analysis mode, configure Asset Type for optimal accuracy:
• Small Cap: Stocks under $2B market cap, low liquidity
• Biotech / Speculative: Clinical-stage pharma, penny stocks, high-risk
• Blue Chip / Large Cap: S&P 500, mega-cap tech, stable large companies
• Tech Growth: High-growth tech (TSLA, NVDA, growth SaaS)
• Dividend / Value: Dividend aristocrats, value stocks, utilities
• Cyclical: Energy, materials, industrials (macro-driven)
• Crypto / High Volatility: Bitcoin, altcoins, highly volatile assets
Correct asset type selection improves Statistical accuracy by 15-20%.
RISK MANAGEMENT GUIDELINES:
1. Stop Loss Placement:
Long positions:
• Place stop below recent swing low OR
• Place stop below SuperTrend level (whichever is tighter)
• Use 1-2 ATR distance as guideline
• Recommended: SuperTrend level (built-in volatility adjustment)
Short positions:
• Place stop above recent swing high OR
• Place stop above SuperTrend level (whichever is tighter)
• Use 1-2 ATR distance as guideline
• Recommended: SuperTrend level
2. Position Sizing by Quality Score:
• Excellent (60-70): Maximum position size (2% risk per trade)
• Strong (45-59): Standard position size (1.5% risk per trade)
• Good (30-44): Reduced position size (1% risk per trade)
• Weak (Below 30): Pass or micro position (0.5% risk - learning trades only)
3. Exit Strategy Options:
Option A - Statistical Duration-Based Exit:
• Exit at median estimated duration (conservative)
• Exit at average estimated duration (moderate)
• Trail stop beyond average duration (aggressive)
Option B - Signal-Based Exit:
• Exit on opposite signal (SELL after BUY, or vice versa)
• Exit on SuperTrend flip (trend reversal)
• Exit if quality score drops below 30 mid-trend
Option C - Hybrid (Recommended):
• Take 50% profit at median estimated duration
• Trail stop on remaining 50% using SuperTrend as trailing level
• Full exit on SuperTrend flip or quality collapse
4. Trade Filtering:
For higher win-rate (fewer trades, better quality):
• Increase minimum quality score (try 60 for swing, 50 for day trading)
• Enable volume momentum filter (ensure institutional participation)
• Require higher MTF confluence (5-6/6 alignment)
• Use Advanced analysis mode with appropriate asset type
For more opportunities (more trades, lower quality threshold):
• Decrease minimum quality score (40 for day trading, 35 for scalping)
• Disable volume momentum filter
• Lower MTF confluence requirement
• Use Simple or Standard analysis mode
SETTINGS OVERVIEW
Quick Setup Section:
• Trading Style Preset: Auto / Scalping / Day Trading / Swing / Position / Custom
Dashboard & Display:
• Show Dashboard (ON/OFF)
• Dashboard Position (9 options: Top/Middle/Bottom + Left/Center/Right)
• Text Size (Auto/Tiny/Small/Normal/Large/Huge)
• Show Ribbon Fill (ON/OFF)
• Show SuperTrend Line (ON/OFF)
• Bullish Color (default: Green)
• Bearish Color (default: Red)
• Show Entry Labels - BUY/SELL signals (ON/OFF)
• Show Info Labels - Volume events (ON/OFF)
• Label Size (Auto/Tiny/Small/Normal/Large/Huge)
Supertrend Configuration:
• ATR Length (default varies by preset: 7-21)
• ATR Multiplier Base (default varies by preset: 2.0-4.0)
• Use Adaptive Multiplier (ON/OFF) - Dynamic 0.8x-1.2x adjustment
• Smoothing Factor (0.0-0.5) - EMA smoothing applied to bands
• Neutral Bars After Flip (0-10) - Hide ST immediately after flip
Volume Momentum:
• Enable Volume Momentum Filter (ON/OFF)
• Fast Period (default varies by preset: 3-20)
• Slow Period (default varies by preset: 10-50)
Volume Analysis:
• Volume MA Length (default varies by preset: 10-50)
• High Volume Threshold (default: 1.5x)
• Spike Threshold (default: 2.5x)
• Low Volume Threshold (default: 0.7x)
Quality Filters:
• Minimum Quality Score (0-70, varies by preset)
• Require Volume Confirmation (ON/OFF)
Trend Duration Analysis:
• Show Duration Analysis (ON/OFF) - Display duration analysis boxes
• analysis mode - Simple / Standard / Advanced
• Asset Type - 7 options (Small Cap, Biotech, Blue Chip, Tech Growth, Dividend, Cyclical, Crypto)
• Use Exponential Weighting (ON/OFF) - Recent trends weighted more
• Decay Factor (0.5-0.99) - How much more recent trends matter
• Structure Lookback (3-30) - Pivot detection period for support/resistance
• Proximity Threshold (xATR) - How close to level qualifies as "near"
• Enable Error Learning (ON/OFF) - System learns from estimation errors
• Memory Depth (3-20) - How many past errors to remember
Box Visual Settings:
• duration analysis box Border Color
• duration analysis box Background Color
• duration analysis box Text Color
• duration analysis box Border Width
• duration analysis box Transparency
Multi-Timeframe (Optional Feature):
• Enable MTF Confluence (ON/OFF)
• Minimum Alignment Required (0-6)
• Individual timeframe enable/disable toggles
• Custom timeframe selection options
All preset configurations override manual inputs except when "Custom" is selected.
ADVANCED FEATURES
1. Scalpel Mode (Optional)
Advanced pullback entry system that waits for healthy retracements within established trends before signaling entry:
• Monitors price distance from SuperTrend levels
• Requires pullback to configurable range (default: 30-50%)
• Ensures trend remains intact before entry signal
• Reduces whipsaw and false breakouts
• Inspired by Mark Minervini's VCP pullback entries
Best for: Swing traders and day traders seeking precision entries
Scalpers: Consider disabling for faster entries
2. Error Learning System (Advanced analysis mode Only)
The system learns from its own estimation errors:
• Tracks last 10-20 completed duration estimates (configurable memory depth)
• Calculates error ratio for each: estimated duration / Actual Duration
• If system consistently over-estimates: Applies negative correction (-15%)
• If system consistently under-estimates: Applies positive correction (+15%)
• Adapts to current market regime automatically
This self-correction mechanism improves accuracy over time as the system gathers more data on your specific symbol and timeframe.
3. Regime Detection (Advanced analysis mode Only)
Automatically detects whether market is in trending or choppy regime:
• Compares last 3 trends to historical average
• Recent trends 20%+ longer → Trending regime (+20% to estimates)
• Recent trends 20%+ shorter → Choppy regime (-20% to estimates)
• Applied separately to bullish and bearish trends
Helps duration estimates adapt to changing market conditions without manual intervention.
4. Exponential Weighting
Option to weight recent trends more heavily than distant history:
• Default decay factor: 0.9
• Recent trends get higher weight in statistical calculations
• Older trends gradually decay in importance
• Rationale: Recent market behavior more relevant than old data
• Can be disabled for equal weighting
5. Backtest Statistics
System backtests its own duration estimates using historical data:
• Walks through past trends chronologically
• Calculates what duration estimate WOULD have been at each flip
• Compares to actual duration that occurred
• Displays accuracy metrics in duration analysis boxes and dashboard
• Helps assess statistical reliability on your specific chart
Note: Backtest uses only data available AT THE TIME of each historical flip (no lookahead bias).
TECHNICAL SPECIFICATIONS
• Pine Script Version: v6
• Indicator Type: Overlay (draws on price chart)
• Max Boxes: 500 (for duration analysis box storage)
• Max Bars Back: 5000 (for comprehensive historical analysis)
• Security Calls: 1 (for MTF if enabled - optimized)
• Repainting: NO - All signals and duration estimates confirmed on bar close
• Lookahead Bias: NO - All HTF data properly offset, all duration estimates use only historical data
• Real-time Updates: YES - Dashboard and quality scores update live
• Alert Capable: YES - Both automatic alerts and customizable alert conditions
• Multi-Symbol: Works on stocks, crypto, forex, futures, indices
Performance Optimization:
• Conditional calculations (duration analysis can be disabled to reduce load)
• Efficient array management (circular buffers for trend storage)
• Streamlined gradient rendering (26 layers, can be toggled off)
• Smart label cooldown system (prevents label spam)
• Optimized similarity matching (analyzes only relevant trends)
Data Requirements:
• Minimum 50-100 bars for initial duration analysis (builds historical database)
• Optimal: 500+ bars for robust statistical analysis
• Longer history = more accurate duration estimates
• Works on any timeframe from 1 minute to monthly
KNOWN LIMITATIONS
• Trending Markets Only: Performs best in clear trends. May generate false signals in choppy/sideways markets (use quality score filtering and regime detection to mitigate)
• Lagging Nature: Like all trend-following systems, signals occur AFTER trend establishment, not at exact tops/bottoms. Use duration analysis boxes to set realistic profit targets.
• Initial Learning Period: Duration analysis system requires 10-15 completed trends to build reliable historical database. Early duration estimates less accurate (first few weeks on new symbol/timeframe).
• Visual Load: 26-layer gradient ribbon may slow performance on older devices. Disable ribbon if experiencing lag.
• Statistical accuracy Variables: Duration estimates are statistical estimates, not guarantees. Accuracy varies by:
- Market regime (trending vs choppy)
- Asset volatility characteristics
- Quality of historical pattern matches
- Timeframe traded (higher TF = more reliable)
• Not Best Suitable For:
- Ultra-short-term scalping (sub-1-minute charts)
- Mean-reversion strategies (designed for trend-following)
- Range-bound trading (requires trending conditions)
- News-driven spikes (estimates based on technical patterns, not fundamentals)
FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS
Q: Does this indicator repaint?
A: Absolutely not. All signals, duration analysis boxes, labels, and alerts use barstate.isconfirmed checks. They only appear after the bar closes. What you see in history is exactly what you would have seen in real-time. Zero repaint guarantee.
Q: How accurate are the trend duration estimates?
A: Accuracy varies by mode, market conditions, and historical data quality:
• Simple mode: 60-70% accuracy (within ±20% of actual duration)
• Standard mode: 70-80% accuracy (within ±20% of actual duration)
• Advanced mode: 75-85% accuracy (within ±20% of actual duration)
Best accuracy achieved on:
• Higher timeframes (4H, Daily, Weekly)
• Trending markets (not choppy/sideways)
• Assets with consistent behavior (Blue Chip, Large Cap)
• After 20+ historical trends analyzed (builds robust database)
Remember: All duration estimates are statistical calculations based on historical patterns, not guarantees.
Q: Which analysis mode should I use?
A:
• Simple: Beginners, clean trending markets, want minimal complexity
• Standard: Most traders, general market conditions (RECOMMENDED DEFAULT)
• Advanced: Experienced traders, volatile/complex markets (biotech, small-cap, crypto), seeking maximum accuracy
Advanced mode requires correct Asset Type configuration for optimal results.
Q: What's the difference between the trading style presets?
A: Each preset optimizes ALL parameters for a specific trading approach:
• Scalping: Ultra-sensitive (ATR 7, Mult 2.0), more signals, shorter holds
• Day Trading: Balanced (ATR 10, Mult 2.5), moderate signals, intraday holds
• Swing Trading: Stable (ATR 14, Mult 3.0), fewer signals, multi-day holds
• Position Trading: Very stable (ATR 21, Mult 4.0), rare signals, week/month holds
Auto mode automatically selects based on your chart timeframe.
Q: Should I use Auto mode or manually select a preset?
A: Auto mode is recommended for most traders. It automatically matches settings to your timeframe and re-optimizes if you switch charts. Only use manual preset selection if:
• You want scalping settings on a 15m chart (overriding auto-detection)
• You want swing settings on a 1h chart (more conservative than auto would give)
• You're testing different approaches on same timeframe
Q: Can I use this for scalping and day trading?
A: Absolutely! The preset system is specifically designed for all trading styles:
• Select "Scalping (1-5m)" for 1-5 minute charts
• Select "Day Trading (15m-1h)" for 15m-1h charts
• Or use "Auto" mode and it configures automatically
Volume momentum filter is auto-disabled in Scalping mode for faster signals.
Q: What is Volume Momentum and why does it matter?
A: Volume Momentum compares short-term volume (fast MA) to long-term volume (slow MA). It answers: "Is money flowing into this asset faster now than historically?"
Why it matters:
• Volume often leads price (early warning system)
• Confirms institutional participation (smart money)
• No lag like price-based indicators
• More intuitive than complex mathematical filters
When the ratio is above 1.2, you have strong evidence that institutions are accumulating (bullish) or distributing (bearish).
Q: How do I set up alerts?
A: Two options:
Option 1 - Automatic Alerts:
1. Right-click on chart → Add Alert
2. Condition: Select this indicator
3. Choose "Any alert() function call"
4. Configure notification method (app, email, webhook)
5. You'll receive detailed alerts on every BUY and SELL signal
Option 2 - Customizable Alert Conditions:
1. Right-click on chart → Add Alert
2. Condition: Select this indicator
3. You'll see three options in dropdown:
- "BUY Signal" (long signals only)
- "SELL Signal" (short signals only)
- "ANY Signal" (both BUY and SELL)
4. Choose desired option and customize message template
5. Uses TradingView placeholders: {{ticker}}, {{close}}, {{time}}, etc.
All alerts fire only on confirmed bar close (no repaint).
Q: What is Scalpel Mode and should I use it?
A: Scalpel Mode waits for healthy pullbacks within established trends before signaling entry. It reduces whipsaws and improves entry timing.
Recommended ON for:
• Swing traders (want precision entries on pullbacks)
• Day traders (willing to wait for better prices)
• Risk-averse traders (prefer fewer but higher-quality entries)
Recommended OFF for:
• Scalpers (need immediate entries, can't wait for pullbacks)
• Momentum traders (want to enter on breakout, not pullback)
• Aggressive traders (prefer more opportunities over precision)
Q: Why do some duration estimates show wider ranges than others?
A: Range width reflects historical trend variability:
• Narrow range: Similar historical trends had consistent durations (high confidence)
• Wide range: Similar historical trends had varying durations (lower confidence)
Wide ranges often occur:
• Early in analysis (fewer historical trends to learn from)
• In volatile/choppy markets (inconsistent trend behavior)
• On lower timeframes (more noise, less consistency)
The median and average still provide useful targets even when range is wide.
Q: Can I customize the dashboard position and appearance?
A: Yes! Dashboard settings include:
• Position: 9 options (Top/Middle/Bottom + Left/Center/Right)
• Text Size: Auto, Tiny, Small, Normal, Large, Huge
• Show/Hide: Toggle entire dashboard on/off
Choose position that doesn't overlap important price action on your specific chart.
Q: Which timeframe should I trade on?
A: Depends on your trading style and time availability:
• 1-5 minute: Active scalping, requires constant monitoring
• 15m-1h: Day trading, check few times per session
• 4h-Daily: Swing trading, check once or twice daily
• Daily-Weekly: Position trading, check weekly
General principle: Higher timeframes produce:
• Fewer signals (less frequent)
• Higher quality setups (stronger confirmations)
• More reliable duration estimates (better statistical data)
• Less noise (clearer trends)
Start with Daily chart if new to trading. Move to lower timeframes as you gain experience.
Q: Does this work on all markets (stocks, crypto, forex)?
A: Yes, it works on all markets with trending characteristics:
Excellent for:
• Stocks (especially growth and momentum names)
• Crypto (BTC, ETH, major altcoins)
• Futures (indices, commodities)
• Forex majors (EUR/USD, GBP/USD, etc.)
Best results on:
• Trending markets (not range-bound)
• Liquid instruments (tight spreads, good fills)
• Volatile assets (clear trend development)
Less effective on:
• Range-bound/sideways markets
• Ultra-low volatility instruments
• Illiquid small-caps (use caution)
Configure Asset Type (in Advanced analysis mode) to match your instrument for best accuracy.
Q: How many signals should I expect per day/week?
A: Highly variable based on:
By Timeframe:
• 1-5 minute: 5-15 signals per session
• 15m-1h: 2-5 signals per day
• 4h-Daily: 2-5 signals per week
• Daily-Weekly: 1-2 signals per month
By Market Volatility:
• High volatility = more SuperTrend flips = more signals
• Low volatility = fewer flips = fewer signals
By Quality Filter:
• Higher threshold (60-70) = fewer but better signals
• Lower threshold (30-40) = more signals, lower quality
By Volume Momentum Filter:
• Enabled = Fewer signals (only volume-confirmed)
• Disabled = More signals (all SuperTrend flips)
Adjust quality threshold and filters to match your desired signal frequency.
Q: What's the difference between entry labels and info labels?
A:
Entry Labels (BUY/SELL):
• Your primary trading signals
• Based on SuperTrend flip + all confirmations (quality, volume, momentum)
• Include quality score and confirmation icons
• These are actionable entry points
Info Labels (Volume Spike):
• Additional market context
• Show volume events that may support or contradict trend
• 8-bar cooldown to prevent spam
• NOT necessarily entry points - contextual information only
Control separately: Can show entry labels without info labels (recommended for clean charts).
Q: Can I combine this with other indicators?
A: Absolutely! This works well with:
• RSI: For divergences and overbought/oversold conditions
• Support/Resistance: Confluence with key levels
• Fibonacci Retracements: Pullback targets in Scalpel Mode
• Price Action Patterns: Flags, pennants, cup-and-handle
• MACD: Additional momentum confirmation
• Bollinger Bands: Volatility context
This indicator provides trend direction and duration estimates - complement with other tools for entry refinement and additional confluence.
Q: Why did I get a low-quality signal? Can I filter them out?
A: Yes! Increase the Minimum Quality Score in settings.
If you're seeing signals with quality below your preference:
• Day Trading: Set minimum to 50
• Swing Trading: Set minimum to 60
• Position Trading: Set minimum to 70
Only signals meeting the threshold will appear. This reduces frequency but improves win-rate.
Q: How do I interpret the MTF Confluence count?
A: Shows how many of 6 timeframes agree with current trend:
• 6/6 aligned: Perfect agreement (extremely rare, highest confidence)
• 5/6 aligned: Very strong alignment (high confidence)
• 4/6 aligned: Good alignment (standard quality setup)
• 3/6 aligned: Moderate alignment (acceptable)
• 2/6 aligned: Weak alignment (caution)
• 1/6 aligned: Very weak (likely counter-trend)
Higher confluence typically correlates with longer, stronger trends. However, MTF analysis is optional - you can disable it and rely solely on quality scoring.
Q: Is this suitable for beginners?
A: Yes, but requires foundational knowledge:
You should understand:
• Basic trend-following concepts (higher highs, higher lows)
• Risk management principles (position sizing, stop losses)
• How to read candlestick charts
• What volume and volatility mean
Beginner-friendly features:
• Auto preset mode (zero configuration)
• Quality scoring (tells you signal strength)
• Dashboard tooltips (hover for explanations)
• duration analysis boxes (visual profit targets)
Recommended for beginners:
1. Start with "Auto" or "Swing Trading" preset on Daily chart
2. Use Standard Analysis Mode (not Advanced)
3. Set minimum quality to 60 (fewer but better signals)
4. Paper trade first for 2-4 weeks
5. Study methodology references (Minervini, O'Neil, Zanger)
Q: What is the Asset Type setting and why does it matter?
A: Asset Type (in Advanced analysis mode) adjusts duration estimates based on volatility characteristics:
• Small Cap: Explosive moves, extended trends (+30-40%)
• Biotech / Speculative: Parabolic potential, news-driven (+40%)
• Blue Chip / Large Cap: Baseline, steady trends (0% adjustment)
• Tech Growth: Momentum-driven, longer trends (+20%)
• Dividend / Value: Slower, grinding trends (-20%)
• Cyclical: Macro-driven, variable (±10%)
• Crypto / High Volatility: Parabolic potential (+30%)
Correct configuration improves Statistical accuracy by 15-20%. Using Blue Chip settings on a biotech stock may underestimate trend length (you'll exit too early).
Q: Can I backtest this indicator?
A: Yes! TradingView's Strategy Tester works with this indicator's signals.
To backtest:
1. Note the entry conditions (SuperTrend flip + quality threshold + filters)
2. Create a strategy script using same logic
3. Run Strategy Tester on historical data
Additionally, the indicator includes BUILT-IN duration estimate validation:
• System backtests its own duration estimates
• Shows accuracy metrics in dashboard and duration analysis boxes
• Helps assess reliability on your specific symbol/timeframe
Q: Why does Volume Momentum auto-disable in Scalping mode?
A: Scalping requires ultra-fast entries to catch quick moves. Volume Momentum filter adds friction by requiring volume confirmation before signaling, which can cause missed opportunities in rapid scalping.
Scalping preset is optimized for speed and frequency - the filter is counterproductive for that style. It remains enabled for Day Trading, Swing Trading, and Position Trading presets where patience improves results.
You can manually enable it in Custom mode if desired.
Q: How much historical data do I need for accurate duration estimates?
A:
Minimum: 50-100 bars (indicator will function but duration estimates less reliable)
Recommended: 500+ bars (robust statistical database)
Optimal: 1000+ bars (maximum Statistical accuracy)
More history = more completed trends = better pattern matching = more accurate duration estimates.
New symbols or newly-switched timeframes will have lower Statistical accuracy initially. Allow 2-4 weeks for the system to build historical database.
IMPORTANT DISCLAIMERS
No Guarantee of Profit:
This indicator is an educational tool and does not guarantee any specific trading results. All trading involves substantial risk of loss. Duration estimates are statistical calculations based on historical patterns and are not guarantees of future performance.
Past Performance:
Historical backtest results and Statistical accuracy statistics do not guarantee future performance. Market conditions change constantly. What worked historically may not work in current or future markets.
Not Financial Advice:
This indicator provides technical analysis signals and statistical duration estimates only. It is not financial, investment, or trading advice. Always consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Risk Warning:
Trading stocks, options, futures, forex, and cryptocurrencies involves significant risk. You can lose all of your invested capital. Never trade with money you cannot afford to lose. Only risk capital you can lose without affecting your lifestyle.
Testing Required:
Always test this indicator on a demo account or with paper trading before risking real capital. Understand how it works in different market conditions. Verify Statistical accuracy on your specific instruments and timeframes before trusting it with real money.
User Responsibility:
You are solely responsible for your trading decisions. The developer assumes no liability for trading losses, incorrect duration estimates, software errors, or any other damages incurred while using this indicator.
Statistical Estimation Limitations:
Trend Duration estimates are statistical estimates based on historical pattern matching. They are NOT guarantees. Actual trend durations may differ significantly from duration estimates due to unforeseen news events, market regime changes, or lack of historical precedent for current conditions.
CREDITS & ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
Methodology Inspiration:
• Mark Minervini - Volatility Contraction Pattern (VCP) concepts and pullback entry techniques
• William O'Neil - Volume analysis principles and CANSLIM institutional buying patterns
• Dan Zanger - Momentum breakout strategies and volatility expansion entries
Technical Components:
• SuperTrend calculation - Classic ATR-based trend indicator (public domain)
• Statistical analysis - Standard median, average, range calculations
• k-Nearest Neighbors - Classic machine learning similarity matching concept
• Multi-timeframe analysis - Standard request.security implementation in Pine Script
For questions, feedback, or support, please comment below or send a private message.
Happy Trading!
Turtle System 1 (20/10) + N-Stop + MTF Table V7.2🐢 Description: Turtle System 1 (20/10) IndicatorThis indicator implements the original trading signals of the Turtle Trading System 1 based on the classic Donchian Channels. It incorporates a historically correct, volatility-based Trailing Stop (N-Stop) and a Multi-Timeframe (MTF) status dashboard. The script is written in Pine Script v6, optimized for performance and reliability.📊 Core Logic and ParametersThe system is a pure trend-following model, utilizing the more widely known, conservative parameters of the Turtle System 1:FunctionParameterValueDescriptionEntry$\text{Donchian Breakout}$$\mathbf{20}$Buy/Sell upon breaking the 20-day High/Low.Exit (Turtle)$\text{Donchian Breakout}$$\mathbf{10}$Close the position upon breaking the 10-day Low/High.Volatility$\mathbf{N}$ (ATR Period)$\mathbf{20}$Calculation of market volatility using the Average True Range (ATR).Stop-LossMultiplier$\mathbf{2.0} BER:SETS the initial and Trailing Stop at $\mathbf{2N}$.🛠️ Key Technical Features1. Original Turtle Trailing Stop (Section 4)The stop-loss mechanism is implemented with the historically accurate Turtle Trailing Logic. The stop is not aggressively tied to the current candle's low/high, which often causes premature exits. Instead, the stop only trails in the direction of the trend, maximizing the previous stop price against the new calculated $\text{Close} \pm 2N$:$$\text{New Trailing Stop} = \text{max}(\text{Previous Stop}, \text{Close} \pm (2 \times N))$$2. Reliable Multi-Timeframe (MTF) Status (Section 6)The indicator features a robust MTF status table.Purpose: It calculates and persistently stores the Turtle System 1 status (LONG=1, SHORT=-1, FLAT=0) for various timeframes (1H, 4H, 8H, 1D, and 1W).Method: It uses global var int variables combined with request.security(), ensuring the status is accurately maintained and updated across different bars and timeframes, providing a reliable higher-timeframe context.3. VisualizationsChannels: The 20-period (Entry) and 10-period (Exit) Donchian Channels are plotted.Stop Line: The dynamic $\mathbf{2N}$ Trailing Stop is visible as a distinct line.Signals: plotshape markers indicate Entry and Exit.MTF Table: A clean, color-coded status summary is displayed in the upper right corner.
Turtle System 2 (55/20) + N-Stop + MTF Table V7.2🐢 Description: Turtle System 2 (55/20) IndicatorThis indicator implements the trading signals of the Turtle Trading System 2 based on the classic Donchian Channels, supplemented by a historically correct, volatility-based Trailing Stop (N-Stop) and a Multi-Timeframe (MTF) status overview. The script was developed in Pine Script v6 and is optimized for performance and robustness.📊 Core Logic and ParametersThe indicator is based on the rule-based trend-following system developed by Richard Dennis and William Eckhardt, utilizing the more aggressive Entry/Exit parameters of System 2:FunctionParameterValueDescriptionEntry$\text{Donchian Breakout}$$\mathbf{55}$Buy/Sell upon breaking the 55-day High/Low.Exit (Turtle)$\text{Donchian Breakout}$$\mathbf{20}$Close the position upon breaking the 20-day Low/High.Volatility$\mathbf{N}$ (ATR Period)$\mathbf{20}$Calculation of market volatility using the Average True Range (ATR).Stop-LossMultiplier$\mathbf{2.0} BER:SETS the initial and Trailing Stop at $\mathbf{2N}$.🛠️ Technical Implementation1. Correct Trailing Stop (Section 4)In contrast to many flawed implementations, the Trailing Stop is implemented here according to the Original Turtle Logic. The stop price (current_stop_price) is not aggressively tied to the current low or high. Instead, at the close of each bar, it is only trailed in the direction of the trade (math.max for long positions) based on the formula:$$\text{New Trailing Stop} = \text{max}(\text{Previous Stop}, \text{Close} \pm (2 \times N))$$This ensures the stop is only adjusted upon sustained positive movement and is not prematurely triggered by short-term, deep price shadows.2. Reliable Multi-Timeframe (MTF) Logic (Section 6)The MTF section utilizes global var int variables (mtf_status_1h, mtf_status_D, etc.) in conjunction with the request.security() function.Purpose: Calculates and persistently stores the current Turtle System 2 status (LONG=1, SHORT=-1, FLAT=0) for the timeframes 1H, 4H, 8H, 1D, and 1W.Advantage: By persistently storing the status using the var variables, the critical error of single-update status is eliminated. The states shown in the table are reliable and accurately reflect the Turtle System's position status on the respective timeframes.3. Visual ComponentsDonchian Channels: The entry (55-period) and exit (20-period) channels are drawn with color highlighting.N-Stop Line: The dynamically calculated Trailing Stop ($\mathbf{2N}$) is displayed as a magenta line.Visual Signals: plotshape markers indicate Entry and Exit points.MTF Table: A compact status summary with color coding (Green/Red/Gray) for the higher timeframes is displayed in the upper right corner.
Smart Trail Signals NO CONDITIONSSmart Trail Signals Indicator
Overview
This is a trend-following indicator that uses a dynamic trailing stop system to identify bullish and bearish trends. It adapts to market volatility using ATR (Average True Range) and provides visual signals when the trend direction changes.
Core Components
Smart Trail System:
Calculates dynamic support (trail_up) and resistance (trail_down) levels
Adjusts trail levels based on price movement and volatility
Maintains trend direction until price crosses the opposite trail level
Key Parameters:
Length (14): Period for ATR calculation
Multiplier (2.0): Distance of trail from price relative to ATR
Sensitivity (1-5): Fine-tunes how quickly the trail adapts to price changes
How It Works
Trend Detection: Monitors whether price is above the support trail (bullish) or below the resistance trail (bearish)
Trail Movement:
In uptrends: Support trail rises with price but never decreases
In downtrends: Resistance trail falls with price but never increases
Signals: Diamond shapes appear when trend flips:
Green diamond below bar = bullish trend change
Red diamond above bar = bearish trend change
Visual Aids:
Trail line changes color (lime for uptrend, red for downtrend)
Candles colored green (bullish), red (bearish), or gray (neutral)
Best Use Cases
Identifying trend reversals on any timeframe
Following strong directional moves
Setting dynamic stop-loss levels
Works 24/7 on all instruments (stocks, crypto, forex)
RetryClaude can make mistakes. Please double-check responses. Sonnet 4.5
MTF EMA Trading SystemHere's a comprehensive description and usage guide for publishing your MTF EMA Trading System indicator on TradingView:
MTF EMA Trading System - Pro Edition
📊 Indicator Overview
The MTF EMA Trading System is an advanced multi-timeframe exponential moving average indicator designed for traders seeking high-probability setups with multiple confirmations. Unlike simple EMA crossover systems, this indicator combines trend alignment, momentum, volume analysis, and previous day confluence to generate reliable long and short signals with optimal risk-reward ratios.
✨ Key Features
1. Multi-Timeframe EMA Analysis
Configure 5 independent EMAs (default: 9, 21, 50, 100, 200)
Each EMA can pull data from ANY timeframe (5m, 15m, 1H, 4H, 1D, etc.)
Color-coded lines with customizable widths
End-of-line labels showing EMA period and timeframe (e.g., "EMA200 ")
Perfect for analyzing higher timeframe trends on lower timeframe charts
2. Advanced Signal Generation (Beyond Simple Crosses)
The system requires MULTIPLE confirmations before generating a signal:
LONG Signals Require:
✅ Price action trigger (EMA cross, bounce from key EMA, or pullback setup)
✅ Bullish EMA alignment (EMAs in proper ascending order)
✅ Volume spike confirmation (configurable threshold)
✅ RSI momentum confirmation (bullish but not overbought)
✅ Sufficient EMA separation (avoids choppy/whipsaw conditions)
✅ Price above previous day's low (confluence with support)
SHORT Signals Require:
✅ Price action trigger (EMA cross, rejection from key EMA, or pullback setup)
✅ Bearish EMA alignment (EMAs in proper descending order)
✅ Volume spike confirmation
✅ RSI momentum confirmation (bearish but not oversold)
✅ Sufficient EMA separation
✅ Price below previous day's high (confluence with resistance)
3. Real-Time Dashboard
Displays critical market conditions at a glance:
Overall trend direction (Bullish/Bearish/Neutral)
Price position relative to all EMAs
Volume status (spike or normal)
RSI momentum reading
EMA confluence strength
EMA separation quality
Current ATR value
Previous day high/low levels
Current signal status (LONG/SHORT/WAIT)
Risk-reward ratio
4. Clean Visual Design
Large, clear trade signal markers (green triangles for LONG, red triangles for SHORT)
No chart clutter - only essential information displayed
Customizable signal sizes
Professional color-coded dashboard
5. Built-In Risk Management
ATR-based calculations for stop loss placement
1:2 risk-reward ratio by default
All levels displayed in dashboard for easy reference
🎯 How to Use This Indicator
Step 1: Initial Setup
Add the indicator to your TradingView chart
Configure your preferred timeframes for each EMA:
EMA 9: Leave blank (uses chart timeframe) - Fast reaction to price
EMA 21: Leave blank or set to 15m - Key pivot level
EMA 50: Set to 1H - Intermediate trend
EMA 100: Set to 4H - Major trend filter
EMA 200: Set to 1D - Overall market bias
Adjust signal settings based on your trading style:
Conservative: Keep all confirmations enabled
Aggressive: Disable volume or momentum requirements
Scalping: Reduce min EMA separation to 0.2-0.3%
Step 2: Reading the Dashboard
Before taking any trade, check the dashboard:
Trend: Only take LONG signals in bullish trends, SHORT signals in bearish trends
Position: Confirm price is on the correct side of EMAs
Volume: Green spike = strong confirmation
RSI: Avoid extremes (>70 or <30)
Confluence: "Strong" = high probability setup
Separation: "Good" = trending market, avoid "Low" separation
Step 3: Trade Entry
For LONG Trades:
Wait for green triangle to appear below price
Verify dashboard shows:
Bullish or Neutral trend
Volume spike (preferred)
RSI between 50-70
Good separation
Enter at market or on next bar
Set stop loss at: Entry - (ATR × 2)
Set target at: Entry + (ATR × 4)
For SHORT Trades:
Wait for red triangle to appear above price
Verify dashboard shows:
Bearish or Neutral trend
Volume spike (preferred)
RSI between 30-50
Good separation
Enter at market or on next bar
Set stop loss at: Entry + (ATR × 2)
Set target at: Entry - (ATR × 4)
Step 4: Trade Management
Use the ATR values from dashboard for position sizing
Trail stops using the fastest EMA (EMA 9) as price moves in your favor
Exit partial position at 1:1 risk-reward, let remainder run to target
Exit immediately if dashboard trend changes against your position
💡 Best Practices
Timeframe Recommendations:
Scalping: 1m-5m chart with 5m, 15m, 1H, 4H, 1D EMAs
Day Trading: 5m-15m chart with 15m, 1H, 4H, 1D EMAs
Swing Trading: 1H-4H chart with 4H, 1D, 1W EMAs
Position Trading: 1D chart with 1D, 1W, 1M EMAs
Market Conditions:
Best in: Trending markets with clear direction
Avoid: Tight consolidation, low volume periods, major news events
Filter trades: Only take signals aligned with higher timeframe trend
Risk Management:
Never risk more than 1-2% per trade
Use ATR from dashboard to calculate position size
Respect the stop loss levels
Don't force trades when dashboard shows weak conditions
⚙️ Customization Options
EMA Settings (for each of 5 EMAs):
Length (period)
Timeframe (multi-timeframe capability)
Color
Line width
Show/hide toggle
Signal Settings:
Volume confirmation (on/off)
Volume spike threshold (1.0-3.0x)
Momentum confirmation (on/off)
RSI overbought/oversold levels
Minimum EMA separation percentage
ATR period and stop multiplier
Display Settings:
Show/hide EMA labels
Show/hide trade signals
Signal marker size (tiny/small/normal/large)
Show/hide dashboard
🔔 Alert Setup
The indicator includes 4 alert conditions:
LONG Signal - Fires when all long confirmations are met
SHORT Signal - Fires when all short confirmations are met
Bullish Setup - Early warning when trend aligns bullish with volume
Bearish Setup - Early warning when trend aligns bearish with volume
To set up alerts:
Right-click on chart → Add Alert
Select "MTF EMA Trading System"
Choose your desired alert condition
Configure notification method (popup, email, SMS, webhook)
📈 Performance Tips
Increase Win Rate:
Only trade in direction of higher timeframe trend
Wait for volume spike confirmation
Avoid trades during first 30 minutes and last 15 minutes of session
Skip trades when separation is "Low"
Reduce False Signals:
Increase minimum EMA separation to 0.7-1.0%
Enable all confirmation requirements
Only trade when confluence shows "Strong"
Combine with support/resistance levels
Optimize for Your Market:
Stocks: Use 9, 21, 50, 100, 200 EMAs
Forex: Consider 8, 13, 21, 55, 89 EMAs (Fibonacci)
Crypto: May need wider ATR multiplier (2.5-3.0x) for volatility
⚠️ Important Notes
This indicator is designed to reduce false signals by requiring multiple confirmations
No indicator is 100% accurate - always use proper risk management
Backtesting recommended before live trading
Market conditions change - adjust settings as needed
Works best in liquid markets with clear price action
🎓 Conclusion
The MTF EMA Trading System transforms simple moving average analysis into a sophisticated, multi-confirmation trading strategy. By combining trend alignment, momentum, volume, and confluence, it helps traders identify high-probability setups while filtering out noise and false signals. The clean interface and comprehensive dashboard make it suitable for both beginners and experienced traders across all markets and timeframes.
ATR x Trend x Volume SignalsATR x Trend x Volume Signals is a multi-factor indicator that combines volatility, trend, and volume analysis into one adaptive framework. It is designed for traders who use technical confluence and prefer clear, rule-based setups.
🎯 Purpose
This tool identifies high-probability market moments when volatility structure (ATR), momentum direction (CCI-based trend logic), and volume expansion all align. It helps filter out noise and focus on clean, actionable trade conditions.
⚙️ Structure
The indicator consists of three main analytical layers:
1️⃣ ATR Trailing Stop – calculates two adaptive ATR lines (fast and slow) that define volatility context, trend bias, and potential reversal points.
2️⃣ Trend Indicator (CCI + ATR) – uses a CCI-based logic combined with ATR smoothing to determine the dominant trend direction and reduce false flips.
3️⃣ Volume Analysis – evaluates volume deviations from their historical average using standard deviation. Bars are highlighted as medium, high, or extra-high volume depending on intensity.
💡 Signal Logic
A Buy Signal (green) appears when all of the following are true:
• The ATR (slow) line is green.
• The Trend Indicator is blue.
• A bullish candle closes above both the ATR (slow) and the Trend Indicator.
• The candle shows medium, high, or extra-high volume.
A Sell Signal (red) appears when:
• The ATR (slow) line is red.
• The Trend Indicator is red.
• A bearish candle closes below both the ATR (slow) and the Trend Indicator.
• The candle shows medium, high, or extra-high volume.
Only one signal can appear per ATR trend phase. A new signal is generated only after the ATR direction changes.
❌ Exit Logic
Exit markers are shown when price crosses the slow ATR line. This behavior simulates a trailing stop exit. The exit is triggered one bar after entry to prevent same-bar exits.
⏰ Session Filter
Signals are generated only between the user-defined session start and end times (default: 14:00–18:00 chart time). This allows the trader to limit signal generation to active trading hours.
💬 Practical Use
It is recommended to trade with a fixed risk-reward ratio such as 1 : 1.5. Stop-loss placement should be beyond the slow ATR line and adjusted gradually as the trade develops.
For better confirmation, the Trend Indicator timeframe should be higher than the chart timeframe (for example: trading on 1 min → set Trend Indicator timeframe to 15 min; trading on 5 min → set to 1 hour).
🧠 Main Features
• Dual ATR volatility structure (fast and slow)
• CCI-based trend direction filtering
• Volume deviation heatmap logic
• Time-restricted signal generation
• Dynamic trailing-stop exit system
• Non-repainting logic
• Fully optimized for Pine Script v6
📊 Usage Tip
Best results are achieved when combining this indicator with additional technical context such as support-resistance, higher-timeframe confirmation, or market structure analysis.
📈 Credits
Inspired by:
• ATR Trailing Stop by Ceyhun
• Trend Magic by Kivanc Ozbilgic
• Heatmap Volume by xdecow
TrendShield Pro | DinkanWorldSmart Trailing Trend System Powered by EMA + ATR
TrendShield Pro is a powerful trend detection and trailing stop indicator designed for traders who rely on pure price movement and volatility tracking.
It dynamically adapts to market conditions using a combination of EMA (Exponential Moving Average) and ATR (Average True Range) to identify the active trend and place a visual trailing stop line.
🔍 How It Works
TrendShield Pro combines trend direction and volatility to create a self-adjusting trailing system:
EMA (Exponential Moving Average):
Smooths price fluctuations and identifies the overall market bias.
ATR (Average True Range):
Measures volatility to determine how far the trailing stop should follow the trend.
Dynamic Bands:
Two invisible thresholds are formed — up and down — around the EMA using the ATR and your chosen Factor value.
Trailing Logic:
When the EMA is rising, the Trailing Stop (TUp) locks in higher lows.
When the EMA is falling, the Trailing Stop (TDown) locks in lower highs.
The indicator switches trend automatically based on price crossing these trailing levels.
🧭 Visuals & Features
Green Trailing Line (Demand Trend): Indicates an active bullish trend.
Red Trailing Line (Supply Trend): Indicates an active bearish trend.
Arrow Signals:
🟢 Up Arrow → Bullish Trend Reversal
🔴 Down Arrow → Bearish Trend Reversal
Diamond Markers: Show points where the trailing line shifts, marking dynamic volatility changes.
⚙️ Inputs
Input Description
EMA Period Length of the Exponential Moving Average
ATR Period Period used for Average True Range calculation
Factor Multiplier for ATR-based volatility expansion
Kalman Filter [DCAUT]█ Kalman Filter
📊 ORIGINALITY & INNOVATION
The Kalman Filter represents an important adaptation of aerospace signal processing technology to financial market analysis. Originally developed by Rudolf E. Kalman in 1960 for navigation and guidance systems, this implementation brings the algorithm's noise reduction capabilities to price trend analysis.
This implementation addresses a common challenge in technical analysis: the trade-off between smoothness and responsiveness. Traditional moving averages must choose between being smooth (with increased lag) or responsive (with increased noise). The Kalman Filter improves upon this limitation through its recursive estimation approach, which continuously balances historical trend information with current price data based on configurable noise parameters.
The key advancement lies in the algorithm's adaptive weighting mechanism. Rather than applying fixed weights to historical data like conventional moving averages, the Kalman Filter dynamically adjusts its trust between the predicted trend and observed prices. This allows it to provide smoother signals during stable periods while maintaining responsiveness during genuine trend changes, helping to reduce whipsaws in ranging markets while not missing significant price movements.
📐 MATHEMATICAL FOUNDATION
The Kalman Filter operates through a two-phase recursive process:
Prediction Phase:
The algorithm first predicts the next state based on the previous estimate:
State Prediction: Estimates the next value based on current trend
Error Covariance Prediction: Calculates uncertainty in the prediction
Update Phase:
Then updates the prediction based on new price observations:
Kalman Gain Calculation: Determines the weight given to new measurements
State Update: Combines prediction with observation based on calculated gain
Error Covariance Update: Adjusts uncertainty estimate for next iteration
Core Parameters:
Process Noise (Q): Represents uncertainty in the trend model itself. Higher values indicate the trend can change more rapidly, making the filter more responsive to price changes.
Measurement Noise (R): Represents uncertainty in price observations. Higher values indicate less trust in individual price points, resulting in smoother output.
Kalman Gain Formula:
The Kalman Gain determines how much weight to give new observations versus predictions:
K = P(k|k-1) / (P(k|k-1) + R)
Where:
K is the Kalman Gain (0 to 1)
P(k|k-1) is the predicted error covariance
R is the measurement noise parameter
When K approaches 1, the filter trusts new measurements more (responsive).
When K approaches 0, the filter trusts its prediction more (smooth).
This dynamic adjustment mechanism allows the filter to adapt to changing market conditions automatically, providing an advantage over fixed-weight moving averages.
📊 COMPREHENSIVE SIGNAL ANALYSIS
Visual Trend Indication:
The Kalman Filter line provides color-coded trend information:
Green Line: Indicates the filter value is rising, suggesting upward price momentum
Red Line: Indicates the filter value is falling, suggesting downward price momentum
Gray Line: Indicates sideways movement with no clear directional bias
Crossover Signals:
Price-filter crossovers generate trading signals:
Golden Cross: Price crosses above the Kalman Filter line, suggests potential bullish momentum development, may indicate a favorable environment for long positions, filter will naturally turn green as it adapts to price moving higher
Death Cross: Price crosses below the Kalman Filter line, suggests potential bearish momentum development, may indicate consideration for position reduction or shorts, filter will naturally turn red as it adapts to price moving lower
Trend Confirmation:
The filter serves as a dynamic trend baseline:
Price Consistently Above Filter: Confirms established uptrend
Price Consistently Below Filter: Confirms established downtrend
Frequent Crossovers: Suggests ranging or choppy market conditions
Signal Reliability Factors:
Signal quality varies based on market conditions:
Higher reliability in trending markets with sustained directional moves
Lower reliability in choppy, range-bound conditions with frequent reversals
Parameter adjustment can help adapt to different market volatility levels
🎯 STRATEGIC APPLICATIONS
Trend Following Strategy:
Use the Kalman Filter as a dynamic trend baseline:
Enter long positions when price crosses above the filter
Enter short positions when price crosses below the filter
Exit when price crosses back through the filter in the opposite direction
Monitor filter slope (color) for trend strength confirmation
Dynamic Support/Resistance:
The filter can act as a moving support or resistance level:
In uptrends: Filter often provides dynamic support for pullbacks
In downtrends: Filter often provides dynamic resistance for bounces
Price rejections from the filter can offer entry opportunities in trend direction
Filter breaches may signal potential trend reversals
Multi-Timeframe Analysis:
Combine Kalman Filters across different timeframes:
Higher timeframe filter identifies primary trend direction
Lower timeframe filter provides precise entry and exit timing
Trade only in direction of higher timeframe trend for better probability
Use lower timeframe crossovers for position entry/exit within major trend
Volatility-Adjusted Configuration:
Adapt parameters to match market conditions:
Low Volatility Markets (Forex majors, stable stocks): Use lower process noise for stability, use lower measurement noise for sensitivity
Medium Volatility Markets (Most equities): Process noise default (0.05) provides balanced performance, measurement noise default (1.0) for general-purpose filtering
High Volatility Markets (Cryptocurrencies, volatile stocks): Use higher process noise for responsiveness, use higher measurement noise for noise reduction
Risk Management Integration:
Use filter as a trailing stop-loss level in trending markets
Tighten stops when price moves significantly away from filter (overextension)
Wider stops in early trend formation when filter is just establishing direction
Consider position sizing based on distance between price and filter
📋 DETAILED PARAMETER CONFIGURATION
Source Selection:
Determines which price data feeds the algorithm:
OHLC4 (default): Uses average of open, high, low, close for balanced representation
Close: Focuses purely on closing prices for end-of-period analysis
HL2: Uses midpoint of high and low for range-based analysis
HLC3: Typical price, gives more weight to closing price
HLCC4: Weighted close price, emphasizes closing values
Process Noise (Q) - Adaptation Speed Control:
This parameter controls how quickly the filter adapts to changes:
Technical Meaning:
Represents uncertainty in the underlying trend model
Higher values allow the estimated trend to change more rapidly
Lower values assume the trend is more stable and slow-changing
Practical Impact:
Lower Values: Produces very smooth output with minimal noise, slower to respond to genuine trend changes, best for long-term trend identification, reduces false signals in choppy markets
Medium Values: Balanced responsiveness and smoothness, suitable for swing trading applications, default (0.05) works well for most markets
Higher Values: More responsive to price changes, may produce more false signals in ranging markets, better for short-term trading and day trading, captures trend changes earlier, adjust freely based on market characteristics
Measurement Noise (R) - Smoothing Control:
This parameter controls how much the filter trusts individual price observations:
Technical Meaning:
Represents uncertainty in price measurements
Higher values indicate less trust in individual price points
Lower values make each price observation more influential
Practical Impact:
Lower Values: More reactive to each price change, less smoothing with more noise in output, may produce choppy signals
Medium Values: Balanced smoothing and responsiveness, default (1.0) provides general-purpose filtering
Higher Values: Heavy smoothing for very noisy markets, reduces whipsaws significantly but increases lag in trend change detection, best for cryptocurrency and highly volatile assets, can use larger values for extreme smoothing
Parameter Interaction:
The ratio between Process Noise and Measurement Noise determines overall behavior:
High Q / Low R: Very responsive, minimal smoothing
Low Q / High R: Very smooth, maximum lag reduction
Balanced Q and R: Middle ground for most applications
Optimization Guidelines:
Start with default values (Q=0.05, R=1.0)
If too many false signals: Increase R or decrease Q
If missing trend changes: Decrease R or increase Q
Test across different market conditions before live use
Consider different settings for different timeframes
📈 PERFORMANCE ANALYSIS & COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGES
Comparison with Traditional Moving Averages:
Versus Simple Moving Average (SMA):
The Kalman Filter typically responds faster to genuine trend changes
Produces smoother output than SMA of comparable length
Better noise reduction in ranging markets
More configurable for different market conditions
Versus Exponential Moving Average (EMA):
Similar responsiveness but with better noise filtering
Less prone to whipsaws in choppy conditions
More adaptable through dual parameter control (Q and R)
Can be tuned to match or exceed EMA responsiveness while maintaining smoothness
Versus Hull Moving Average (HMA):
Different noise reduction approach (recursive estimation vs. weighted calculation)
Kalman Filter offers more intuitive parameter adjustment
Both reduce lag effectively, but through different mechanisms
Kalman Filter may handle sudden volatility changes more gracefully
Response Characteristics:
Lag Time: Moderate and configurable through parameter adjustment
Noise Reduction: Good to excellent, particularly in volatile conditions
Trend Detection: Effective across multiple timeframes
False Signal Rate: Typically lower than simple moving averages in ranging markets
Computational Efficiency: Efficient recursive calculation suitable for real-time use
Optimal Use Cases:
Markets with mixed trending and ranging periods
Assets with moderate to high volatility requiring noise filtering
Multi-timeframe analysis requiring consistent methodology
Systematic trading strategies needing reliable trend identification
Situations requiring balance between responsiveness and smoothness
Known Limitations:
Parameters require adjustment for different market volatility levels
May still produce false signals during extreme choppy conditions
No single parameter set works optimally for all market conditions
Requires complementary indicators for comprehensive analysis
Historical performance characteristics may not persist in changing market conditions
USAGE NOTES
This indicator is designed for technical analysis and educational purposes. The Kalman Filter's effectiveness varies with market conditions, tending to perform better in markets with clear trending phases interrupted by consolidation. Like all technical indicators, it has limitations and should not be used as the sole basis for trading decisions, but rather as part of a comprehensive trading approach.
Algorithm performance varies with market conditions, and past characteristics do not guarantee future results. Always test thoroughly with different parameter settings across various market conditions before using in live trading. No technical indicator can predict future price movements with certainty, and all trading involves risk of loss.
